Representatives of the almost 200 delegates present at the climate summit in Egypt continue to discuss, on the last day of negotiations, key issues to complete the text of the final resolution. The second draft of the agreement, 10 pages long, is a document that will undergo modifications; but its current content gives very clear clues as to where the outcome of the summit will lean. This text incorporates as a central objective to keep the temperature increase below 2 ºC and to continue efforts so that it does not exceed 1.5 ºC (as stated in the Paris Agreement), while the EU claims that the central goal is 1.5 ºC, as established in the Glasgow pact (2021).
The allusion to the progressive elimination of coal (great source of warming) is maintained, but this call is not extended to the request to gradually put an end to all fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) as India and the Union have proposed. European.
And, finally, the debate on the point referring to the response to the ‘losses and damages’ as a result of the worst impacts of extreme weather suffered by the most vulnerable nations remains very open, and which is the subject of a very intense and which is not included in this text for now. For the EU, the document is very insufficient, very unambitious.
Here are the basic contents of the draft, with evaluation comments.
1. The (draft) agreement “encourages continued efforts to accelerate measures aimed at phasing out coal power, and eliminating and rationalizing inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, in line with national circumstances and recognizing the need for support towards just transitions.
(The idea of ending fossil fuels globally, a proposal rejected by nations in Africa and the Middle East, is not picked up.)
2) Reaffirms the objective of containing the increase in average temperature included in the Paris Agreement to keep it “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and continue efforts to limit the increase in temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”.
(This is what the Paris Agreement establishes; but it is less than what was set at the Glasgow summit, in which the first goal was 1.5ºC).
3) It also recognizes that “the impacts of climate change will be much less at a temperature increase of 1.5 ºC compared to 2 ºC” and reaffirms the resolution to continue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ºC.
(It is nothing new either, a copy of the Paris Agreement and not the most ambitious Glasgow pact)
4. It is noted that these targets require “immediate, deep, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.”
5. The conclusions of the summary report of the Framework Convention on Climate Change where the balance of the climate action plans (national contributions) presented by the countries to the secretary of this body was observed “with grave concern”. If all the plans presented are applied, the global level of greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 “will be 0.3% lower than the 2019 level, which is not in line with the scenarios to maintain the increase in global temperature in 2 or 1.5 °C”.
(It is a copy of what that summary document says)
The pending gap
6. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires “rapid, deep and sustained reductions” in greenhouse gases, including reducing carbon dioxide by 45% by 2030 relative to 2010 levels and down to net zero around mid-century, as well as deep reductions in other greenhouse gases.”
(Stronger language, and which reminds us of the magnitude of the pending challenge)
7. Parties that have not communicated their new or revised climate action plans (national contributions) are encouraged to do so as soon as possible and before November 2023.
(Omitted for now is the call in Glasgow for all parties to review and strengthen their action plans, to align with the 1.5 1C target.” That Glasgow call means that countries must come back each year with better determined contributions. at the national level until all are aligned with 1.5 ºC, Even so, it must be remembered that only thirty countries presented these revised duties).
8. It is recognized that the global energy crisis, in addition to the impact of climate change, “is challenging efforts to achieve energy security”. This underscores the urgency of rapidly transforming energy systems to make them more reliable and resilient, and the need to to accelerate clean and just transitions to renewable energy during this critical decade of action.” Concern is also expressed about “the impacts of the current energy crisis on the fulfillment of promises and commitments related to the energy transition and diversification energy”
(Statement of principles. It’s very good. The language is not forceful and a call is missing to avoid going back on other key elements, such as the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions)
loss and damage
9. The document “notes with great concern (…) the increasing severity, scope and frequency of loss and damage in all regions, and that loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change in the form of extreme weather events, as well as slow-onset events (…)”. It also expresses its “deep concern about the significant financial costs associated with loss and damage for developing countries, which increases the debt burden and hinders the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030”
(The text is outdated by the European proposal in this chapter)
10. Around 4 trillion dollars a year must be invested in renewable energy until 2030, including investments in technology and infrastructure, to reach net zero emissions by 2050. In addition, a global transformation towards a low carbon economy is expected, which which requires investments of at least 4 to 6 billion dollars a year.
(That sounds like a lot of money, but it’s not much larger than the investment needed to grow in a high-carbon economy.)
11. Expresses its serious concern that the goal of mobilizing 100 billion dollars a year by 2020 has not yet been met and urges developed countries to meet the goal and fill this deficit.
(It remains to put a calendar, a schedule, to correct all these deficiencies)
12. Points out that accelerated financial support to developing countries from developed countries and other sources is a critical enabler for improving mitigation action and addressing inequalities in access to finance, including its costs, terms and conditions, and vulnerability to climate change for developing countries
(A completion schedule is not set as claimed).
13. Multilateral development banks are called upon to reform their practices and priorities, in order to reduce the cost of lending for climate projects in developing countries and increase their investment in adaptation finance. They are asked to be consistent and align their operations with the Paris Agreement on climate change. Multilateral development banks are called upon to significantly increase climate ambition by using the breadth of their financial policies and instruments to achieve better results, including mobilizing private capital.
(It is a clamor that the banks should bet on this change of direction)
Comprehensive vision with biodiversity
14. The urgent need to comprehensively address the interrelated global crises of climate change and biodiversity loss in the broader context of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals is underlined, “as well as the vital importance of protecting, conserving and restore nature and ecosystems for effective and sustainable climate action.”
15. “Noting the importance of ensuring the integrity of all ecosystems, including forests, the ocean and the cryosphere, and the protection of biodiversity, recognized by some cultures as Mother Earth, and also stressing the importance of ‘climate justice’…”
(Next month’s Biodiversity conference in Montreal is the frame of mind for this idea.)