Black Friday kicked off the Christmas campaign yesterday, in which businesses hope to recover lost ground after months of slowdown in consumption. The commercial marathon at the end of the year represents up to 40% of the annual turnover for some sectors, and this edition the uncertainty due to consumer behavior is at a maximum.
The vast majority of forecasts indicate a reduction in spending. One of the last to go public, from the Boston Consulting Group, points in this direction. Thus, he estimates that this Black Friday average spending will be 13% lower than in 2021, with a ticket of 225 euros per buyer. Concern about the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine and inflation are behind this budget cut, according to the consultancy. On the plus side is the volume of people hoping to take advantage of this discount day, which continues today in much of the retail sector. 72% of Spaniards plan to make purchases this Black Friday, the highest percentage in Europe only behind Italy.
Large retailers hope to stimulate purchases
Large distribution sources explain that the activity yesterday Friday was positive. The largest commercial operators expect a good response from consumers despite the current situation, with an important component of purchases in advance. That is to say, they will take advantage of the promotions of these days to acquire Christmas gifts. The Anged employers’ association, which brings together companies such as El Corte Inglés, Ikea, MediaMarkt or Fnac, calculates that Black Friday already concentrates between a quarter and a third of the Christmas sales of the trade depending on the categories.
The companies also highlight that the return to normality, after two years of covid, is favoring both purchases and better commercial operations, in matters such as logistics, employment and management with suppliers.
Due to the increase in costs
The small business claims to have no room for aggressive discounts
The small business faces the event with a different spirit, although it also hopes that the promotional campaign will boost sales. From PimeComerç they underline the difficulty of local operators to make large discounts at a time of skyrocketing costs –electricity, raw materials…– The Comertia retail association, for its part, foresees that the greatest discounts will be concentrated in the textile sector, most affected by the October consumption brake. Fashion sales fell by more than 11% last month, according to data from Kantar, and not even the general price rise was able to save the turnover of these companies.
Despite the doubts, trade is crossing its fingers so that, indeed, the commercial campaign for the final stretch of the year reverses a situation that has been dragging on since mid-summer.
The data from CaixaBank Research, measured through the Economy in real time application, reveal how spending has slowed down in the second half of the year. Consumption in April advanced 31%, encouraged by the end of pandemic restrictions. But from there it has lost strength, up to 9% in October. Black Friday and Christmas will finish taking the pulse of the strength of consumption.